Any of the following events can occur while the characters are staying in the @Town of Vallaki.
The Festival of the Blazing Sun takes place three days after the characters first arrive in the @Town of Vallaki. The festival can be delayed if the characters get waylaid or drawn elsewhere, or the timeline can be advanced if the characters seem to be in a hurry.
"Under threatening skies, a parade of unhappy children dressed as flowers trudges through the muddy streets, leading the way for a group of sorry-looking men and women carrying a ten-foot-diameter wicker ball. The burgomaster @Vargas Vallakovich and his smiling wife @Lydia Petrovna, who holds a sad bouquet of wilting flowers, follow the procession on horseback. As weary spectators watch from their stoops, the ball is borne to the town square. There, it is hoisted and hung from a fifteen-foot-high wooden scaffold, and townsfolk take turns splashing it with oil. Before the wicker sun can be set ablaze, the sky tears open in a sudden downpour. "All will be well!" cries the burgomaster as he brandishes a sputtering torch and marches defiantly through the rain toward the wicker ball, only to have his torch go out as he thrusts it into the sphere.
A singular laugh erupts from the crowd, drawing the burgomaster's fiery gaze as well as gasps from the townsfolk."
The laugh comes from Lars Kjurls (LG male @Human @Guard), a member of the town militia. The other guards are aghast at Lars's ill-timed outburst. The burgomaster immediately has Lars arrested for "spite." Unless the characters intervene, Lars is bound at the ankles and wrists, then dragged behind the burgomaster's horse for the "amusement" of all. The burgomaster rides the horse himself.
If the characters challenge the burgomaster in any way, he orders them banished from Vallaki. If they protest, he orders the @Guards to arrest them, deprive them of their weapons, and force them out of Vallaki at sword point.
If the characters lose their weapons, the Keepers of the Feather eventually steal back the weapons and return them to the characters.
If the guards fail in their duty, the burgomaster retreats to his mansion and the townsfolk flee to their homes, giving the characters free rein in town.
@Karl Wachter and @Nikolai Wachter Junior are young, foolish men from a proud noble family. The drunken brothers sneak into @Arasek Stockyard while everyone else is attending the festival in the town square. On a dare, one of them rocks the wagon. The @Saber-Toothed Tiger locked inside becomes enraged and smashes through the wagon door. The characters and everyone else in town hear the screams of the young men as the tiger escapes. The tiger flees the stockyard without harming the Wachters and begins to prowl the streets, looking for an escape. Reports of a tiger running loose in the streets ruin the festival and send townsfolk scurrying for their homes.
The saber-toothed tiger doesn't harm anyone until it takes damage, whereupon it attacks the perceived source of the damage. If he is still alive, @Izek Strazni gathers six town @Guards and hunts down the @Beast with the intention of killing it. Meanwhile, @Rudolph van Richten (in the guise of Rictavio) does his best to lure the @Beast back to his wagon while assuring townsfolk that it won't harm them.
If he's still in power, the burgomaster conducts an investigation to find out where the tiger came from. Guards and local witnesses are questioned. The Wachter boys feign innocence, insisting that they were at the festival, but Gunther and Yelena Arasek admit to hearing "evil growls" and scratching sounds coming from inside the carnival wagon parked in their stockyard. When pressed, the Araseks admit to seeing the wagon's "weird owner" routinely drop food into the wagon through a hatch in the roof. They also confess that the @Half-Elf paid them for their silence.
After the burgomaster learns that the tiger belongs to Rictavio (@Rudolph van Richten), he commands his guards to arrest the mysterious bard. If Rictavio thinks the characters can help him, he asks them to distract the burgomaster and the guards while he gathers his horse, wagon, and tiger (in that order). If the characters ask Rictavio where he plans to go, he tells them about an old tower to the west where he can lie low (@Khazan's Tower).
@Ernst Larnak begins shadowing the characters. Characters who have a passive Wisdom (Perception) score of 14 or higher notice him doing so. If they confront him, he claims that he keeps a watchful eye on all strangers, though he doesn't mention the name of his employer. If the characters threaten him, he backs off and reports to Lady @Fiona Wachter after he believes he's not being watched or pursued.
Lady Wachter is looking for powerful allies to help her oust the burgomaster. If Ernst tells her that he thinks the characters fit the bill, Lady Wachter has Ernst or her sons invite the characters to a private dinner at Wachterhaus. During the dinner, Lady Wachter determines whether the characters have the ability and the resolve to crush the baron.
If the characters refuse her invitation, or if they profess to be enemies of @Strahd von Zarovich, Lady Wachter marks them as her enemies and sets out to destroy them without incriminating herself.
Once she determines that the characters are her enemies, Lady @Fiona Wachter hands @Ernst Larnak a bag of 100 gp and instructs him to deliver it to the Vistani camp outside town (@Vallaki Vistani Camp), along with a letter from her that asks the Vistani to dispose of the characters once they have left town. The Vistani burn the letter after reading it, as per Lady Wachter's request.
If the characters have rescued @Arabelle, the Vistani return Lady Wachter's gold to Ernst and do nothing.
Otherwise, a vistana @Bandit watches the road east of the @Town of Vallaki and reports back to camp if the characters are sighted leaving. The Vistani, worried that the characters might be more than a match for them, send one emissary on horseback to race ahead of the characters and inform Strahd. If @Arrigal is alive, he makes the ride himself. Otherwise, the rider is a young vistana @Bandit named Alexei.
The characters can prevent this special event from occurring by returning the bones of St. Andral to @St. Andral's Church or by destroying the @Vampire Spawns hiding in the @Coffin Maker's Shop. If the characters stay in the @Town of Vallaki for three days or more and don't retrieve the bones or destroy the vampire spawn, @Strahd von Zarovich visits the coffin maker's shop the following evening and orchestrates an attack on the church.
The vampire spawn begin the attack that night. They cling to the outer walls and roof of St. Andral's church while four @Swarm of Batses enter the church through the belfry and terrify the congregation. As the townsfolk flee the church, the vampire spawn leap down and attack them.
During the chaos, Strahd enters the church in @Bat form, then reverts to @Vampire, Vampire Form and attacks Father @Lucian Petrovich. Unless the characters intervene, Strahd kills the priest before returning to @Castle Ravenloft.
If Father @Lucian Petrovich dies, locals bury his body in the church cemetery, whereupon it rises the following night as a @Vampire Spawn under @Strahd von Zarovich's control. If Rictavio (@Rudolph van Richten) learns of the priest's death, he suggests that the characters burn the priest's body to ensure that it doesn't rise from the dead.
The attack on St. Andral's church terrorizes and demoralizes the town. After a few days, fear turns to misdirected rage as townsfolk blame the burgomaster. Baron @Vargas Vallakovich's "All will be well!" mantra can't protect him from their wrath. Barring intervention by the characters, the burgomaster's mansion is set ablaze, and the baron, his wife @Lydia Petrovna, and his son @Victor Vallakovich are dragged to the @Vallaki Town Square, thrown in the stocks, and stoned to death. If he is alive, @Izek Strazni flees the town to avoid a similar fate. Where he hides is up to the DM, but likely locations include @Old Bonegrinder, @Argynvostholt, or the @Ruins of Berez.
If the characters thwart the attack on @St. Andral's Church and protect Father Lucian, Strahd pays a visit to @Wachterhaus and there composes a letter, which he asks Lady @Fiona Wachter to deliver to the characters. The letter is written in Strahd's hand and extends an invitation to the characters to come to @Castle Ravenloft. Lady Wachter orders her spy, @Ernst Larnak, or one of her sons to take the letter to the characters. If the characters open and read it, read:
"My friends,
Know that it is I who have brought you to this land, my home, and know that I alone can release you from it. I bid you dine at my castle so that we can meet in civilized surroundings. Your passage here will be a safe one. I await your arrival.
Your host, @Strahd von Zarovich"
If the characters head toward the castle, they have no threatening random encounters on the way.